Incidentally, I'm not some economic whizz which is coming up with some of these answers off the top of my head. I'm using Grok 3 to do so, Elon Musk's latest AI assistant.
I don't think he's all bad...
There is a very short term window where the governments borrowing rates are mostly below current rates, because most of their debt is existing..
But current interest rates always reflect inflation rates, and our current rates are devastating our budget now..
That's why our current rates haven't dropped inspite of the Fed rate cuts. They are a reflection of our current inflation rate..
Now imagine what happens if we have some sort of bump in the road and the government needs even more money?
We're fucked because we don't have our fiscal house in order..
jackb said
Feb 21 8:23 PM, 2025
So close to chaos it's disturbing.
-- Edited by jackb on Friday 21st of February 2025 08:27:24 PM
Maddog said
Feb 21 10:44 PM, 2025
jackb wrote:
So close to chaos it's disturbing.
-- Edited by jackb on Friday 21st of February 2025 08:27:24 PM
It is chaotic..But I think it's got to be done quickly and chaoticly.
Slow and deliberate will stall out as politicians get cold feet and revert to the status quo..
Barksdale said
Feb 22 11:14 AM, 2025
Maddog wrote:
Now imagine what happens if we have some sort of bump in the road and the government needs even more money?
We're fucked because we don't have our fiscal house in order..
That's the key point. Defaulting wouldn't really be an option so you have to borrow at increasingly high rates given the markets don't have confidence in your economy. You therefore have to flog off your country's assets and the citizens lose their country from right under their feet.
In any event, sounds like we agree that spending cuts (or at least making spending more efficient) seem wise as does finding ways of bolstering the economy and getting capital inflows. Hopefully that is what Trump & Musk will achieve and you will revitalise your working and middle class. If that happens it is likely that the UK will follow as it seems to me that poverty has been normalised (living pay cheque to pay cheque, having no savings, having to work very long hours, the majority of your wage going towards rent, not being able to afford a family etc.)
Personally if I was a US citizen I would hedge against that happening however and secure my financial position for a bumpy few years (be it through fixing a mortgage when rates hopefully fall, getting on the property ladder if at all possible, alternatively holding a house deposit in a sensible stock portfolio and letting that cook as necessary.)
Maddog said
Feb 22 7:43 PM, 2025
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Now imagine what happens if we have some sort of bump in the road and the government needs even more money?
We're fucked because we don't have our fiscal house in order..
That's the key point. Defaulting wouldn't really be an option so you have to borrow at increasingly high rates given the markets don't have confidence in your economy. You therefore have to flog off your country's assets and the citizens lose their country from right under their feet.
In any event, sounds like we agree that spending cuts (or at least making spending more efficient) seem wise as does finding ways of bolstering the economy and getting capital inflows. Hopefully that is what Trump & Musk will achieve and you will revitalise your working and middle class. If that happens it is likely that the UK will follow as it seems to me that poverty has been normalised (living pay cheque to pay cheque, having no savings, having to work very long hours, the majority of your wage going towards rent, not being able to afford a family etc.)
Personally if I was a US citizen I would hedge against that happening however and secure my financial position for a bumpy few years (be it through fixing a mortgage when rates hopefully fall, getting on the property ladder if at all possible, alternatively holding a house deposit in a sensible stock portfolio and letting that cook as necessary.)
There is no way to unwind this without pain..
That's Trump's biggest problem. He's not being honest. He promised unrealistic economic improvement when the opposite is probably going to be true. And he will be bludgeoned daily if things don't rapidly improve like he promised.
Anonymous said
Feb 23 11:29 PM, 2025
Trump won't do anything unless it makes him money or ensures less brown faces in America. If the economy plummets he will just lie and pretend it hasn't (the threat of tariffs has already seen a drop of 41% in holidays booked to the States. If this continues Trump will lose billions in tourism alone ) Why America voted for a clinical sociopath, a compulsive liar and proud racist who seeks to cause division is beyond many not living there. His spouting of Putin propoganda is dangerous though , it was a farce to try and gaslight ppl into believing the Ukrainian leader was a "dictator" but what was his motivation there? He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people. He is unfit to be in office but other leaders must tip toe around him lest he decides to drop bombs without warning. Bigotry has led to a shift to far right in many countries but voters will realise to their cost the far right in power don't care about poor white ppl .
jackb said
Feb 24 1:18 AM, 2025
I guess Trump has been guaranteed lots of money for life and beyond by his fellow president.
Maddog said
Feb 24 7:09 AM, 2025
Robert DeNiro wrote:
Trump won't do anything unless it makes him money or ensures less brown faces in America. If the economy plummets he will just lie and pretend it hasn't (the threat of tariffs has already seen a drop of 41% in holidays booked to the States. If this continues Trump will lose billions in tourism alone ) Why America voted for a clinical sociopath, a compulsive liar and proud racist who seeks to cause division is beyond many not living there. His spouting of Putin propoganda is dangerous though , it was a farce to try and gaslight ppl into believing the Ukrainian leader was a "dictator" but what was his motivation there? He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people. He is unfit to be in office but other leaders must tip toe around him lest he decides to drop bombs without warning. Bigotry has led to a shift to far right in many countries but voters will realise to their cost the far right in power don't care about poor white ppl .
That just shows how bad Kamala was..
Look he she lost to. 🤷
Barksdale said
Feb 24 8:44 AM, 2025
Robert DeNiro wrote:
He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people.
I think a lot of Americans are in for a bit of a rude awakening. It seems he is more than a little indifferent to their plight if it clashes with his main interests.
I cannot see how things will improve for most people in the next couple of years and they will continue to struggle. Even if inflation lowers it doesn't follow that prices will come down - they just won't keep rising at such a quick rate. To get more money into Americans's pockets will take tax cuts targeted at them and / or pay increases. It would also need something radical to keep rents under control and home ownership more affordable.
2025 might get more than a little ugly.
Barksdale said
Feb 24 8:46 AM, 2025
Maddog wrote:
Robert DeNiro wrote:
Trump won't do anything unless it makes him money or ensures less brown faces in America. If the economy plummets he will just lie and pretend it hasn't (the threat of tariffs has already seen a drop of 41% in holidays booked to the States. If this continues Trump will lose billions in tourism alone ) Why America voted for a clinical sociopath, a compulsive liar and proud racist who seeks to cause division is beyond many not living there. His spouting of Putin propoganda is dangerous though , it was a farce to try and gaslight ppl into believing the Ukrainian leader was a "dictator" but what was his motivation there? He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people. He is unfit to be in office but other leaders must tip toe around him lest he decides to drop bombs without warning. Bigotry has led to a shift to far right in many countries but voters will realise to their cost the far right in power don't care about poor white ppl .
That just shows how bad Kamala was..
Look he she lost to. 🤷
Do you think Kamala was bad or she got dealt a really poor hand by Biden, who should have stepped down a lot sooner?
Vam said
Feb 24 11:45 AM, 2025
Robert DeNiro wrote:
Trump won't do anything unless it makes him money or ensures less brown faces in America. If the economy plummets he will just lie and pretend it hasn't (the threat of tariffs has already seen a drop of 41% in holidays booked to the States. If this continues Trump will lose billions in tourism alone ) Why America voted for a clinical sociopath, a compulsive liar and proud racist who seeks to cause division is beyond many not living there. His spouting of Putin propoganda is dangerous though , it was a farce to try and gaslight ppl into believing the Ukrainian leader was a "dictator" but what was his motivation there? He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people. He is unfit to be in office but other leaders must tip toe around him lest he decides to drop bombs without warning. Bigotry has led to a shift to far right in many countries but voters will realise to their cost the far right in power don't care about poor white ppl .
<< to pretty much all of that.
“He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people.”
Of course he’s not interested! Maybe that’s because he believes he no longer needs them? (“Anything can be hacked”, according to Musk)
Throughout his campaign last year, he would repeat (wtte)…’I just need your vote THIS time. I don‘t even care if you’re sick or dying - just get out and vote!! Because I PROMISE you, after that, you’ll never need to vote again’.
And with Musk glued to his side, no one in congress dares to stand up to him, because Musk has vowed to chuck $20-30million around like confetti, to primary ANYONE in congress who publicly opposes trump. They fear losing their congressional status/power/insider dealing/gravy train, not to mention living in fear for their and their families‘ personal safety.
So we again see The Don, and his La Cosa Nostra ethos, still very much alive and kicking in America. Until Elon decides to call time out, 47 ain’t going anywhere anytime soon, imo.
Vam said
Feb 24 12:26 PM, 2025
@Maddog…..
I see 47’s shill, DeJoy, seems to have outlived his usefulness. Jury seems to be out on whether he resigned or was fired.
47 now wants to take control of the USPS. My admittedly simplistic view is that it’s because 47 has always had a mega hard-on for mail-in voting, and he intends to entirely do away with it.
I‘m interested to see your take on this latest power grab, if you can be assed to give it.
Maddog said
Feb 24 4:01 PM, 2025
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Robert DeNiro wrote:
Trump won't do anything unless it makes him money or ensures less brown faces in America. If the economy plummets he will just lie and pretend it hasn't (the threat of tariffs has already seen a drop of 41% in holidays booked to the States. If this continues Trump will lose billions in tourism alone ) Why America voted for a clinical sociopath, a compulsive liar and proud racist who seeks to cause division is beyond many not living there. His spouting of Putin propoganda is dangerous though , it was a farce to try and gaslight ppl into believing the Ukrainian leader was a "dictator" but what was his motivation there? He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people. He is unfit to be in office but other leaders must tip toe around him lest he decides to drop bombs without warning. Bigotry has led to a shift to far right in many countries but voters will realise to their cost the far right in power don't care about poor white ppl .
That just shows how bad Kamala was..
Look he she lost to. 🤷
Do you think Kamala was bad or she got dealt a really poor hand by Biden, who should have stepped down a lot sooner?
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
Maddog said
Feb 24 4:07 PM, 2025
Vam wrote:
@Maddog…..
I see 47’s shill, DeJoy, seems to have outlived his usefulness. Jury seems to be out on whether he resigned or was fired.
47 now wants to take control of the USPS. My admittedly simplistic view is that it’s because 47 has always had a mega hard-on for mail-in voting, and he intends to entirely do away with it.
I‘m interested to see your take on this latest power grab, if you can be assed to give it.
The post office was under the control of the executive branch for 200 years. I'm not concerned if it reverts back to that. I'd like it to be privatized. Right now it's a money pit for the US taxpayer..
I'm also not a huge fan of mail in ballots as they are not secured for quite some time. Basically all of our voter fraud, limited as it might be is centered around mail in ballots..
Barksdale said
Feb 24 5:15 PM, 2025
Maddog wrote:
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
So both a poor candidate and hubris from the Democratic Party then.
It's a shame as the economic offering from Harris would have benefited the working / middle class more directly than Trump's from what I can see.
Maddog said
Feb 24 5:26 PM, 2025
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
So both a poor candidate and hubris from the Democratic Party then.
It's a shame as the economic offering from Harris would have benefited the working / middle class more directly than Trump's from what I can see.
Harris would have just been more of the status quo.
The last thing any class in my country needs.
I guess if you were a blue haired transgender working from home for the federal government, you might have been better off under Kamala..
Barksdale said
Feb 24 5:33 PM, 2025
Maddog wrote:
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
So both a poor candidate and hubris from the Democratic Party then.
It's a shame as the economic offering from Harris would have benefited the working / middle class more directly than Trump's from what I can see.
Harris would have just been more of the status quo.
The last thing any class in my country needs.
I guess if you were a blue haired transgender working from home for the federal government, you might have been better off under Kamala..
But her policies directly aimed at the middle class such as child tax credits, tackling price gouging and capping medication costs didn't they?
Americans may not like class warfare but that's what you might get under Trump!
Maddog said
Feb 24 5:37 PM, 2025
Bill is a clever and funny liberal. A real minority, lol..
He gets it..
Maddog said
Feb 24 5:39 PM, 2025
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Barksdale wrote:
Maddog wrote:
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
So both a poor candidate and hubris from the Democratic Party then.
It's a shame as the economic offering from Harris would have benefited the working / middle class more directly than Trump's from what I can see.
Harris would have just been more of the status quo.
The last thing any class in my country needs.
I guess if you were a blue haired transgender working from home for the federal government, you might have been better off under Kamala..
But her policies directly aimed at the middle class such as child tax credits, tackling price gouging and capping medication costs didn't they?
Americans may not like class warfare but that's what you might get under Trump!
How was she going to pay for more of the nanny state?
Put it on the backs of my grandkids?
No thanks
Barksdale said
Feb 24 5:59 PM, 2025
Maddog wrote:
How was she going to pay for more of the nanny state?
Put it on the backs of my grandkids?
No thanks
Higher corporation tax, wealth tax, tax cuts for middle income homes and small business.
Would it have worked? Would it have dealt with the structural problems in the US economy? I don't know. However, it was a credible economic plan. The Democrats might have gone completely overboard on the cultural stuff however which cost them dearly.
I really do hope Trump succeeds on the economy as it will give the UK some clue to get us out of the hole we are in. I don't think he will, and I don't think Labour over here will either.
There is a very short term window where the governments borrowing rates are mostly below current rates, because most of their debt is existing..
But current interest rates always reflect inflation rates, and our current rates are devastating our budget now..
That's why our current rates haven't dropped inspite of the Fed rate cuts. They are a reflection of our current inflation rate..
Now imagine what happens if we have some sort of bump in the road and the government needs even more money?
We're fucked because we don't have our fiscal house in order..
So close to chaos it's disturbing.
-- Edited by jackb on Friday 21st of February 2025 08:27:24 PM
It is chaotic..But I think it's got to be done quickly and chaoticly.
Slow and deliberate will stall out as politicians get cold feet and revert to the status quo..
That's the key point. Defaulting wouldn't really be an option so you have to borrow at increasingly high rates given the markets don't have confidence in your economy. You therefore have to flog off your country's assets and the citizens lose their country from right under their feet.
In any event, sounds like we agree that spending cuts (or at least making spending more efficient) seem wise as does finding ways of bolstering the economy and getting capital inflows. Hopefully that is what Trump & Musk will achieve and you will revitalise your working and middle class. If that happens it is likely that the UK will follow as it seems to me that poverty has been normalised (living pay cheque to pay cheque, having no savings, having to work very long hours, the majority of your wage going towards rent, not being able to afford a family etc.)
Personally if I was a US citizen I would hedge against that happening however and secure my financial position for a bumpy few years (be it through fixing a mortgage when rates hopefully fall, getting on the property ladder if at all possible, alternatively holding a house deposit in a sensible stock portfolio and letting that cook as necessary.)
There is no way to unwind this without pain..
That's Trump's biggest problem. He's not being honest. He promised unrealistic economic improvement when the opposite is probably going to be true. And he will be bludgeoned daily if things don't rapidly improve like he promised.
That just shows how bad Kamala was..
Look he she lost to. 🤷
I think a lot of Americans are in for a bit of a rude awakening. It seems he is more than a little indifferent to their plight if it clashes with his main interests.
I cannot see how things will improve for most people in the next couple of years and they will continue to struggle. Even if inflation lowers it doesn't follow that prices will come down - they just won't keep rising at such a quick rate. To get more money into Americans's pockets will take tax cuts targeted at them and / or pay increases. It would also need something radical to keep rents under control and home ownership more affordable.
2025 might get more than a little ugly.
Do you think Kamala was bad or she got dealt a really poor hand by Biden, who should have stepped down a lot sooner?
“He is meant to be looking after the interests of the electorate but he's not interested in the lives of ordinary people.”
Of course he’s not interested! Maybe that’s because he believes he no longer needs them? (“Anything can be hacked”, according to Musk)
Throughout his campaign last year, he would repeat (wtte)…’I just need your vote THIS time. I don‘t even care if you’re sick or dying - just get out and vote!! Because I PROMISE you, after that, you’ll never need to vote again’.
And with Musk glued to his side, no one in congress dares to stand up to him, because Musk has vowed to chuck $20-30million around like confetti, to primary ANYONE in congress who publicly opposes trump. They fear losing their congressional status/power/insider dealing/gravy train, not to mention living in fear for their and their families‘ personal safety.
So we again see The Don, and his La Cosa Nostra ethos, still very much alive and kicking in America. Until Elon decides to call time out, 47 ain’t going anywhere anytime soon, imo.
I see 47’s shill, DeJoy, seems to have outlived his usefulness. Jury seems to be out on whether he resigned or was fired.
47 now wants to take control of the USPS. My admittedly simplistic view is that it’s because 47 has always had a mega hard-on for mail-in voting, and he intends to entirely do away with it.
I‘m interested to see your take on this latest power grab, if you can be assed to give it.
Kamala was one of the worst candidates in history. During the 2020 primaries she was quickly ruled out by democratic voters..
She was the ultimate DEI pick. Unqualified but possessing the correct genitalia and melanin..
Had Biden not run, she wouldn't have been the nominee and there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't win..
The post office was under the control of the executive branch for 200 years. I'm not concerned if it reverts back to that. I'd like it to be privatized. Right now it's a money pit for the US taxpayer..
I'm also not a huge fan of mail in ballots as they are not secured for quite some time. Basically all of our voter fraud, limited as it might be is centered around mail in ballots..
So both a poor candidate and hubris from the Democratic Party then.
It's a shame as the economic offering from Harris would have benefited the working / middle class more directly than Trump's from what I can see.
Harris would have just been more of the status quo.
The last thing any class in my country needs.
I guess if you were a blue haired transgender working from home for the federal government, you might have been better off under Kamala..
But her policies directly aimed at the middle class such as child tax credits, tackling price gouging and capping medication costs didn't they?
Americans may not like class warfare but that's what you might get under Trump!
Bill is a clever and funny liberal. A real minority, lol..
He gets it..
How was she going to pay for more of the nanny state?
Put it on the backs of my grandkids?
No thanks
Higher corporation tax, wealth tax, tax cuts for middle income homes and small business.
Would it have worked? Would it have dealt with the structural problems in the US economy? I don't know. However, it was a credible economic plan. The Democrats might have gone completely overboard on the cultural stuff however which cost them dearly.
I really do hope Trump succeeds on the economy as it will give the UK some clue to get us out of the hole we are in. I don't think he will, and I don't think Labour over here will either.